Correlation between calculated stress distribution and recorded seismicity in Northern Israel and its surrounding

Abstract:

We study the relationship between crustal structure, tectonic slip, and seismicity. A detailed 3-D layered crustal model is constructed including the geometry and mechanical properties of the main geological units of the study area, Northern Israel and its surrounding. Boundary condition of the 3-D model had been set according to the regional GPS measurements and including localized weak zones extrapolated from the mapped faults. The regional crustal model is converted to 1-D seismic velocity model that was applied in second order relocation software (hypoDD), to obtain more accurate earthquake location. We compare earthquake record of the past 30 years with areas of uplifted shear stress in the crustal model, and compare it with a reference 3-D model with flat layers and similar rock properties. Numerical simulation shows spatial distribution of the zones with increased shear stress associated with differential gravitational load, weak zones geometry, and tectonic load. The obtained zones with high stress are well correlated with earthquake locations. Our results and interpretation highlight the importance and advantages of utilizing detailed crustal structure for assessment of regional seismic hazards.