Updated Long Term Fault Slip Rates and Seismic Hazard in the Central Alborz, Iran: New Constraints From InSAR and GPS

Abstract:

The Alborz mountain range, located south of the Caspian Sea, accommodates 30% of the 25 mm/yr convergence between Arabia and Eurasia. The resulting shortening and left lateral motion is distributed over several active fault zones within the Central Alborz. Despite earlier efforts using only GPS data, little is known about the long term rate of vertical deformation and aseismic slip. Several historical earthquakes have affected this region, some of the largest of these events occurred on the Mosha fault which is close to the capital city, Tehran, which has a population of over eight million. Thus, constraining the interseismic slip rates in this region is particularly important. In this study we complement existing horizontal velocities from a regional GPS network, with line of sight velocities from interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR), to provide additional constraints on the vertical deformation and enhance the spatial coverage. Assuming a seismogenic depth of 30 km, based on microseismicity data, we solve for the geometry and long term slip rates on four major fault strands in this region. We obtain a long term slip rate of ~ 3 mm/yr for the Mosha and North Alborz faults, and ~ 10 mm/yr for the Khazar fault and Parchin faults. These rates and fault geometries are in agreement with earlier works, and fit the GPS data well. However, close to the fault traces there are large residuals in the InSAR data, suggesting that there is shallow creep (< 30 km). Therefore, we carry out a subsequent inversion using only the residual InSAR displacements to solve for the distribution of creep within the seismogenic zones on these faults. We find that the Mosha and North Alborz faults remain locked between 0 – 30 km depth, whilst the Parchin and Khazar faults are creeping. This new observation of fault creep has direct implications for the seismic hazard in the region. On the Mosha fault we estimate a slip deficit equivalent to a M_w 7.0 event. The combination of InSAR and GPS provide vital information for assessing the interseismic deformation in the Central Alborz, and these results highlight the importance of closer monitoring of this region to better understand the seismic hazard.