Dynamic Conceptual Model of Sediment Fluxes Underlying Numerical Modelling of Spatial and Temporal Variability and Adjustment to Environmental Change

Abstract:

It is essential that a strong conceptual model underlies numerical modelling of basin fluxes and is inclusive of all factors and routeways through the system. Even under stable environmental conditions river fluxes in large basins vary spatially and temporally. Spatial variations arise due to location in the basin, relation to sources and connectivity, and due to morphology, boundary resistance and hydraulics of successive reaches. Temporal variations at a range of scales, from seasonal to decadal, occur within averaged ’stable’ conditions, which produce changes in morphology and flux and subsequent feedback effects. Sediment flux in a reach can differ between similar peak magnitude events, depending on duration, season, connectivity and supply state, and existing morphology. Autogenic processes such as channel pattern and position changes, vegetation changes, and floodplain cyclicity also take place within the system. The major drivers of change at decadal-centennial timescales are assumed to be climate, land use cover and practices, and direct catchment and channel modification. Different parts of the system will have different trajectories of adjustment, depending on their location and spatial relation to connectivity within the system and on the reach morphological and resistance characteristics. These will govern the rate and extent of transmission of changes. The changes will also be influenced by the occurrence and sequence of flow events and their feedback effects, in relation to changing thresholds produced by the response to the environmental changes. It is essential that the underlying dynamics and inherent variability are recognised in numerical modelling and river management and that spatial sequencing of changes and their feedbacks are incorporated. The challenge is to produce quantifiable relations of the rate or propagation of changes through a basin given spatial variability of reach characteristics, under dynamic flow scenarios.