Variations in population exposure and evacuation potential to multiple tsunami evacuation phases on Alameda and Bay Farm Islands, California

Abstract:

Planning for a tsunami evacuation is challenging for California communities due to the variety of earthquake sources that could generate a tsunami. A maximum tsunami inundation zone is currently the basis for all tsunami evacuations in California, although an Evacuation Playbook consisting of specific event-based evacuation phases relating to flooding severity is in development. We chose to investigate the Evacuation Playbook approach for the island community of Alameda, CA since past reports estimated a significant difference in numbers of residents in the maximum inundation zone when compared to an event-based inundation zone. In order to recognize variations in the types of residents and businesses within each phase, a population exposure analysis was conducted for each of the four Alameda evacuation phases. A pedestrian evacuation analysis using an anisotropic, path distance model was also conducted to understand the time it would take for populations to reach high ground by foot. Initial results suggest that the two islands of the City of Alameda have different situations when it comes to the four tsunami evacuation phases. Pedestrian evacuation results suggest that Bay Farm Island would have more success evacuating by vehicle due to limited nearby high ground for pedestrians to reach safety. Therefore, agent-based traffic simulation software was used to model vehicle evacuation off Bay Farm Island. Initial results show that Alameda Island could face challenges evacuating numerous boat docks and a large beach for phases 1 and 2, whereas Bay Farm Island is unaffected at these phases but might be challenged with evacuating by vehicle for phases 3 and maximum due to congestion on limited egress routes. A better understanding of the population exposure within each tsunami Evacuation Playbook phase and the time it would take to evacuate out of each phase by foot or vehicle will help emergency managers implement the evacuation phases during an actual tsunami event.