Linking Pattern Formation and Alternative Stable States: Ecohydrologic Thresholds and Critical Transitions in the Everglades Peatlands

Abstract:

Spatial patterning occurs in a variety of ecosystems, and is important for the functional properties of landscapes; for testing spatial models of ecological processes; and as an indicator of landscape condition and resilience. Theory suggests that regular patterns arise from coupled local- and landscape-scale feedbacks that can also create multiple stable landscape states. In the Florida Everglades, hydrologic modification has degraded much of the historically-extensive ridge-slough landscape, a patterned peatland mosaic with distinct, flow-parallel patches. However, in the Everglades and in general, the hypothesis that patterned landscapes have homogeneous alternative states has little direct empirical support. Here we use microtopographic and vegetative heterogeneity, and their relation to hydrologic conditions, to infer the existence of multiple landscape equilibria and identify the hydrologic thresholds for critical transitions between these states. Dual relationships between elevation variance and water depth, and bi-modal distributions of both elevation variance and plant community distinctness, are consistent with generic predictions of multiple states, and covariation between these measures suggests that microtopography is the leading indicator of landscape degradation. Furthermore, a simple ecohydrologic multiple-state model correctly predicts the hydrologic thresholds for persistence of distinct ridges and sloughs. Predicted ridge-slough elevation differences and their relation to water depth are much greater than observed in the contemporary Everglades, but correspond closely with historical observations of pre-drainage conditions. These multiple lines of evidence represent the broadest and most direct support for the link between regular spatial pattern and landscape-scale alternative states in any ecosystem, and suggest that other patterned landscapes could undergo sudden collapse in response to changing environmental conditions. Hydrologic thresholds and leading indicators of critical transitions should guide management of the Everglades ridge-slough landscape, whose preservation is a central goal of one of the world's largest ecosystem restoration efforts.