Numerical Tsunami Hazard Assessment of the Only Active Lesser Antilles Arc Submarine Volcano: Kick ’em Jenny.

Abstract:

The Lesser Antilles Volcanic Arc has potentially been hit by prehistorical regional tsunamis generated by voluminous volcanic landslides (volume > 1 km3) among the 53 events recognized so far. No field evidence of these tsunamis are found in the vincity of the sources. Such a scenario taking place nowadays would trigger hazardous tsunami waves bearing potentially catastrophic consequences for the closest islands and regional offshore oil platforms.

Here we applied a complete hazard assessment method on the only active submarine volcano of the arc Kick ’em Jenny (KeJ). KeJ is the southernmost edifice with recognized associated volcanic landslide deposits. From the three identified landslide episodes one is associated with a collapse volume ca. 4.4 km3. Numerical simulations considering a single pulse collapse revealed that this episode would have produced a regional tsunami. An edifice current volume estimate is ca. 1.5 km3.

Previous study exists in relationship to assessment of regional tsunami hazard related to shoreline surface elevation (run-up) in the case of a potential flank collapse scenario at KeJ. However this assessment was based on inferred volume of collapse material. We aim to firstly quantify potential initial volumes of collapse material using relative slope instability analysis (RSIA); secondly to assess first order run-ups and maximum inland inundation distance for Barbados and Trinidad and Tobago, i.e. two important economic centers of the Lesser Antilles. In this framework we present for seven geomechanical models tested in the RSIA step maps of critical failure surface associated with factor of stability (Fs) for twelve sectors of 30° each; then we introduce maps of expected potential run-ups
(run-up × the probability of failure at a sector) at the shoreline.

The RSIA evaluates critical potential failure surface associated with Fs <1 as compared to areas of deficit/surplus of mass/volume identified on the volcanic edifice using (VolcanoFit 2.0 & SSAP 4.5). Tsunami sources characteristics are retrieved from numerical simulation using an hydraulic equations-based code (VolcFlow-Matlab). The tsunami propagation towards the coasts is computed using the open source a Boussinesq equations-based code (FUNWAVE) taking into account high order non linear effects including dissipation.