Altitudinal vs Latitudinal Climactic Drivers: A Comparison of a Relict Picea and Abies Forest in the Southern Appalachians versus the Hemi-Boreal Transition Zone off Southern Canada

Abstract:

Identification of biotic and abiotic determinants of tree species range limits is critical for understanding the effects of climate change on species distributions. Upward shifts of species distributions in montane areas have been widely reported but there have been few reports of latitudinal range retractions. Previous studies have indicated that southern latitudinal limits of a species range are dictated by biotic factors such as competition while others have suggested that abiotic factors, such as temperature, dictate these limits. We investigated the potential climatic gradients at the southern latitudinal limit of the Spruce (Picea) and Fir (Abies) species that dominate the Canadian boreal forest community as well as relict boreal forests containing similar species found in the high elevation areas of the Southern Appalachians. Existing research has suggested that relict ecosystems are more sensitive to climate change and can be indicative of future changes at latitudinal range limits. Expanding on this literature, we hypothesized that we would see similar gradients in climatic variables at the southern latitudinal limit of the Canadian boreal forest and those in the relict boreal forests southern Appalachians acting as controlling factors of these species distributions. We used forty years of climate data from weather stations along the southern edge of the boreal forest in the Canadian Shield provinces, species distribution data from the Canadian National Forest Inventory, (CNFI) geospatial data from the National Park Service (NPS), and historical weather data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to perform our analysis. Our results indicate different climate variables act as controls of warm edge range limits of the Canadian boreal forest than those of the relict boreal forest of the southern Appalachians. However, we believe range retractions of the relict forest may be indicative of a more gradual response of similar species across a latitudinal gradient.