Guiding U.S. Afforestation Policy through Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Modeling

Abstract:

Afforestation has been proposed as a practical and viable solution for curtailing the ever-increasing levels of carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere. Individual states and multi-region cooperatives have established initiatives to offset carbon emissions using a variety of strategies, afforestation being one of them. While afforestation provides a positive benefit of increased carbon sequestration, this land cover change also produces a lower surface albedo, which can lead to local warming. Given these competing effects, carbon balance and surface energy budget analyses were performed for the northern United States and southern Canada, to determine where and for how long forest plantations should be planted to provide a positive benefit to the climate system. We use a dynamic vegetation model to analyze the competing effects of increased carbon sequestration versus increased net radiation at the surface from afforestation. In addition to determining where carbon sequestration (biogeochemical) would outweigh albedo (biophysical) effects, we calculate the amount of emissions offset for a variety of land use scenarios. As an example, in the state of Minnesota state officials have mandated that carbon emissions be reduced 80% from 2005 to 2050. While only taking into consideration land that is currently forested by mature forests and grasslands, the state would only offset about 11% of 2005 emissions annually by reforesting this land with younger, more productive forests. This example suggests that a significant amount of agricultural land would need to be converted into forest to make any sizeable offset to statewide greenhouse gas emissions.