Estimated Impacts of Emissions Reductions on Wheat and Maize Crops

Abstract:

An ability to quantify the impacts associated with different emissions scenarios across
a broad range of economic and environmental outcomes would be helpful for guiding
policy on energy and greenhouse gas emissions. One outcome of particular interest,
especially for food insecure populations, are effects on agricultural productivity. In
this study we use empirical models of the relation between climate and CO2
concentration on the one hand, and changes in crop yields on the other, to
characterize the differential impacts on the future productivity of two major crops of
two level of forcings: those associated with RCP4.5 and those associated with
RCP8.5. This study is part of a larger project on the Benefits of Reducing
Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE). We consider differential effects on maize and
wheat yields at the global scale from expected changes in mean temperature and
precipitation under the two scenarios. We also characterize differential levels of
exposure to damaging heat extremes. Several time horizons are considered,
characterizing expected impacts over the short, middle and long terms over the 21st
century.