What is the Uncertainty on the Ozone Radiative Forcing from Rate Constant Uncertainty?

Abstract:

Global chemical models solve complex chemistry schemes using multiple rate constants that are provided by the laboratory kinetics community. These rate constants have associated errors, which are often ignored in models. We run a series of model simulations perturbing these rate constants to investigate the impact on present day and pre-industrial ozone burden and global mean OH. We show that this uncertainty can have a significant impact on the simulated composition of the atmosphere and that the associated uncertainty on the tropospheric ozone radiative forcing is comparable to that found from the inter-model spread.