Variability and Change in Seasonal Water Storage in the Major Arctic Draining Eurasian River Systems

Abstract:

Variability and change in seasonal water storage in the major Arctic-draining watersheds of Eurasia (Ob. Yenisei and Lena) are assessed in several ways using a combination of storage estimates from the NASA GRACE satellite system, gauged runoff and output from the NASA MERRA atmospheric reanalysis. The study is motivated by the pronounced environmental changes observed in the northern high latitudes and recognition of the climatic importance of changes in hydrology both within and beyond the region. Monthly storage changes based on GRACE gravimetric measurements (2002-2015) and from a water balance approach for the same period calculating storage changes as a residual using gauged runoff along with aerologically-determined net precipitation (atmospheric vapor flux convergence minus the time change in atmospheric precipitable water) from MERRA are generally in good agreement. Agreement is also good for calculations in which aerologically-determined net precipitation is replaced with the MERRA forecasts of precipitation and evapotranspiration. On average, the storage in each of the three watersheds examined (the Ob, Yenisei and Lena) peaks in March and is at a minimum in September. However, this seasonal cycle, primarily driven by snowpack storage through autumn and winter, and snowmelt through spring and summer, varies considerably from year to year in amplitude, phase and between the three watersheds in response to variability in precipitation, evapotranspiration, and near surface air temperature. As assessed over the longer period 1979-2015 covered by MERRA, there is evidence that in response to rising air temperatures influencing precipitation phase and snow storage, peak storage has shifted to earlier in the winter. While recent work provides evidence for a link between increased autumn snowfall over Eurasia and reduced autumn sea ice extent that provides for a moisture source, the effect of increased snowfall is not clearly apparent in water storage.