Lava Flow Hazard Modeling during the 2014-2015 Fogo eruption, Cape Verde

Abstract:

Satellite remote sensing techniques and lava flow forecasting models have been combined to allow an ensemble response during effusive crises at poorly monitored volcanoes. Here, we use the HOTSAT volcano hot spot detection system that works with satellite thermal infrared data and the MAGFLOW lava flow emplacement model that considers the way in which effusion rate changes during an eruption, to forecast lava flow hazards during the 2014–2015 Fogo eruption. In many ways this was one of the major effusive eruption crises of recent years, since the lava flows actually invaded populated areas. HOTSAT is used to promptly analyze MODIS and SEVIRI data to output hot spot location, lava thermal flux, and effusion rate estimation. We use this output to drive the MAGFLOW simulations of lava flow paths and to update continuously flow simulations. Satellite-derived TADR estimates can be obtained in real time and lava flow simulations of several days of eruption can be calculated in a few minutes, thus making such a combined approach of paramount importance to provide timely forecasts of the areas that a lava flow could possibly inundate. In addition, such forecasting scenarios can be continuously updated in response to changes in the eruptive activity as detected by satellite imagery. We also show how Landsat-8 OLI and EO-1 ALI images complement the field observations for tracking the flow front position through time, and add considerable data on lava flow advancement to validate the results of numerical simulations. Our results thus demonstrate how the combination of satellite remote sensing and lava flow modeling can be effectively used during eruptive crises to produce realistic lava flow hazard scenarios and for assisting local authorities in making decisions during a volcanic eruption.