A51C-0055
Using short-term climate variability to infer equilibrium climate sensitivity
Friday, 18 December 2015
Poster Hall (Moscone South)
Andrew E Dessler, Texas A&M Univ, College Station, TX, United States and Chen Zhou, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States
Abstract:
We provide a constraint on the magnitude of the Earth’s equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) using observations short-term climate variability between 2000 and 2014 along with short- and long-term climate model simulations. Our best estimate of the ECS from this analysis 2.5°C, with a likely range of 1.5-3.4°C, which falls in the bottom half of the canonical IPCC ECS range of 1.5-4.5°C.
