Toward Global Real Time Hydrologic Modeling – An “Open” View From the Trenches

Abstract:

Big Data has become a popular term to describe the exponential growth of data and related cyber infrastructure to process it so that better analysis can be performed and lead to improved decision-making. How are we doing in the hydrologic sciences? As part of a significant collaborative effort that brought together scientists from public, private, and academic organizations a new transformative hydrologic forecasting modeling infrastructure has been developed. How was it possible to go from deterministic hydrologic forecasts largely driven through manual interactions at 3600 stations to automated 15-day ensemble forecasts at 2.67 million stations?

Earth observations of precipitation, temperature, moisture, and other atmospheric and land surface conditions form the foundation of global hydrologic forecasts, but this project demonstrates a critical component to harness these resources can be summed up in one word: OPEN. Whether it is open data sources, open software solutions with open standards, or just being open to collaborations and building teams across institutions, disciplines, and international boundaries, time and time again through my involvement in the development of a high-resolution real time global hydrologic forecasting model I have discovered that in every aspect the sum has always been greater than the parts. While much has been accomplished, much more remains to be done, but the most important lesson learned has been to the degree that we can remain open and work together, the greater our ability will be to use big data hydrologic modeling resources to solve the world’s most vexing water related challenges.

This presentation will demonstrate a transformational global real time hydrologic forecasting application based on downscaled ECMWF ensemble forecasts, RAPID routing, and Tethys Platform for cloud computing and visualization with discussions of the human and cyber infrastructure connections that make it successful and needs moving forward.