Propagation of global model uncertainties in aerosol forecasting: A field practitioner’s opinion

Abstract:

While aerosol forecasting has its own host of aerosol source, sink and microphysical challenges to overcome, ultimately any numerical weather prediction based aerosol model can be no better than its underlying meteorology. However, the scorecard elements that drive NWP model development have varying relationships to the key uncertainties and biases that are of greatest concern to aerosol forecasting. Here we provide opinions from member developers of the International Cooperative for Aerosol Prediction (ICAP) on NWP deficiencies related to multi-specie aerosol forecasting, as well as relevance of current NWP scorecard elements to aerosol forecasting. Comparisons to field mission data to simulations are used to demonstrate these opinions and show how shortcomings in individual processes in the global models cascade into aerosol prediction. While a number of sensitivities will be outlined, as one would expect, the most important processes relate to aerosol sources, sinks and, in the context of data assimilation, aerosol hygroscopicity. Thus, the pressing needs in the global models relate to boundary layer and convective processes in the context of large scale waves. Examples will be derived from tropical to polar field measurements, from simpler to more complex including a) network data on dust emissions and transport from Saharan Africa, b) boundary layer development, instability, and deep convection in the United States during Studies of Emissions and Atmospheric, Clouds, and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC⁴RS); and c) 7 Southeast Asian Studies (7SEAS) data on aerosol influences by maritime convection up-scaled through tropical waves. While the focus of this talk is how improved meteorological model processes are important to aerosol modeling, we conclude with recent findings of the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS) which demonstrate how aerosol processes may be important to global model simulations of polar cloud, surface energy and subsequently sea ice budgets. Combined, these field observations demonstrate the importance of global model processes from micro to seasonal scales and tropical to polar climates.