Toward improved solar radiation forecasts: Intercomparison of Planetary Boundary Layer parameterizations for marine boundary layer clouds in Southern Californian coast

Abstract:

Accurate forecasts of solar irradiance are required for electric utilities to economically integrate substantial amounts of solar power into their power generation portfolios. A common shortcoming of numerical weather models is the prediction of marine boundary layer clouds such as over the California coast as boundary layer processes are not resolved well. There are two turbulence parameterizations employed in the Weather Research and Forecasting model. The MYNN scheme is based on the turbulent kinetic energy that is explicit calculated in the model while the YSU scheme produces the exchange coefficients based on K-profiles for unstable and stable conditions. The microphysical and dynamical characteristics of marine boundary layer clouds are compared between two turbulence parameterizations and then sensitivity tests are conducted to enhance the exchange coefficients for momentum and heat. The results from the simulations show that increasing the exchange coefficient leads to enhanced vertical mixing and a deeper mixed layer over both sea and land surfaces. In this condition, clouds become deeper increasing cloud lifetime and reducing surface irradiance. These changes will reduce the bias of day-ahead solar forecasting over coastal California.