Improving Landslide Susceptibility Modeling Using an Empirical Threshold Scheme for Excluding Landslide Deposition

Abstract:

Landslides are frequently triggered by typhoons and earthquakes in Taiwan, causing serious economic losses and human casualties. Remotely sensed images and geo-spatial data consisting of land-cover and environmental information have been widely used for producing landslide inventories and causative factors for slope stability analysis. Landslide susceptibility, on the other hand, can represent the spatial likelihood of landslide occurrence and is an important basis for landslide risk assessment. As multi-temporal satellite images become popular and affordable, they are commonly used to generate landslide inventories for subsequent analysis. However, it is usually difficult to distinguish different landslide sub-regions (scarp, debris flow, deposition etc.) directly from remote sensing imagery. Consequently, the extracted landslide extents using image-based visual interpretation and automatic detections may contain many depositions that may reduce the fidelity of the landslide susceptibility model.

This study developed an empirical thresholding scheme based on terrain characteristics for eliminating depositions from detected landslide areas to improve landslide susceptibility modeling. In this study, Bayesian network classifier is utilized to build a landslide susceptibility model and to predict sequent rainfall-induced shallow landslides in the Shimen reservoir watershed located in northern Taiwan. Eleven causative factors are considered, including terrain slope, aspect, curvature, elevation, geology, land-use, NDVI, soil, distance to fault, river and road. Landslide areas detected using satellite images acquired before and after eight typhoons between 2004 to 2008 are collected as the main inventory for training and verification. In the analysis, previous landslide events are used as training data to predict the samples of the next event. The results are then compared with recorded landslide areas in the inventory to evaluate the accuracy. Experimental results demonstrate that the accuracies of landslide susceptibility analysis in all sequential predictions have been improved significantly after eliminating landslide depositions.