Decadal changes in all and clear-sky shortwave radiation from high spatial resolution satellite-derived and ground-based observations over Europe

Abstract:

Trends of all-sky downward surface shortwave radiation (SSR) from high-spatial resolution satellite-derived data over Europe from 1983 to 2010 are first presented. The results show a widespread (i.e., non-local dimension) brightening in the major part of Europe, especially since the mid-1990s and in springtime. There is a mean increase of SSR of around 2 Wm^-2 per decade over the whole Europe, which, taking into account that the satellite-derived product lacks of aerosol variations, can be related to a decrease in the cloud radiative effects over Europe. The reported increase in SSR is slightly lower than the obtained using high-quality ground-based series over Europe. Secondly, clear-sky SSR estimates have been derived as the result of the difference between ground-based and satellite-derived all-sky SSR data (i.e., this latter lacking direct aerosol effects). The results highlight that these residual series can be useful to estimate clear-sky SSR trends, pointing to a significant increase during the period 1983-2010, with higher rates of around 2 Wm^-2 per decade over central and eastern Europe. This increase in clear-sky SSR is mainly due to a strong increase from the mid-1980s to the late 1990s, possibly linked to a decrease in anthropogenic emissions and a recovery from the El Chichón and Pinatubo volcanic eruptions. These results are in line with observations and other estimates of clear-sky SSR (e.g., by making use of sunshine duration records), as well as reported anthropogenic aerosol emissions and concentrations in Europe. Overall, from the results of this study it can be concluded that around one third of the brightening trend in Europe from 1983 to 2010 can be explained by direct aerosol effects, whereas the other two third is related to clouds, i.e. via changes in natural cloud variability and/or aerosol indirect effect on clouds.