Study Variability of Seasonal Soil Moisture in Ensemble of CMIP5 Models Over South Asia During 1950-2005

Abstract:

Moisture in the upper most layer of soil column from 14 different models under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase-5 (CMIP5) project were analyzed for four seasons of the year. Aim of this study was to explore variability in soil moisture over south Asia using multi model ensemble and relationship between summer rainfall and soil moisture for spring and summer season. GLDAS (Global Land Data Assimilation System) dataset set was used for comparing CMIP5 ensemble mean soil moisture in different season. Ensemble mean represents soil moisture well in accordance with the geographical features; prominent arid regions are indicated profoundly. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis was applied to study the variability. First component of EOF explains 17%, 16%, 11% and 11% variability for spring, summer, autumn and winter season respectively. Analysis reveal increasing trend in soil moisture over most parts of Afghanistan, Central and north western parts of Pakistan, northern India and eastern to south eastern parts of China, in spring season. During summer, south western part of India exhibits highest negative trend while rest of the study area show minute trend (increasing or decreasing). In autumn, south west of India is under highest negative loadings. During winter season, north western parts of study area show decreasing trend. Summer rainfall has very week (negative or positive) spatial correlation, with spring soil moisture, while possess higher correlation with summer soil moisture.

Our studies have significant contribution to understand complex nature of land - atmosphere interactions, as soil moisture prediction plays an important role in the cycle of sink and source of many air pollutants. Next level of research should be on filling the gaps between accurately measuring the soil moisture using satellite remote sensing and land surface modelling. Impact of soil moisture in tracking down different types of pollutant will also be studied.