Characterizing Future El Niño Impacts to the Lower Colorado River Basin

Abstract:

Past El Niño events in the Colorado River Basin, such as the 1982-1983 event, resulted in one of the basin’s wettest years on record. Looking at past events and the current forecasts, which indicate Pacific Ocean conditions could lead to one of the strongest El Niño events on record this winter, it is no wonder that many water management agencies and their customers are expecting a relief in the southwestern United States (US) drought intensity as the probability of a strong El Niño becomes more significant. Despite the conditions in the Pacific Ocean, a strong El Niño is not a guarantee for wet conditions in the Colorado River basin - as can be seen from the 2002 event in which basin conditions were one of the driest on record. There is a great need to understand the range of possible conditions that could be observed under an El Niño event to better inform southwestern US water management agencies so that they may make well-guided decisions regarding their most valuable resource - the Colorado River.

This study builds upon past research based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climatology and hydrology projections and the analysis performed with singular variable decomposition (SVD) to identify climate models with high correlation between historical climate/hydrology in the CRB and sea surface temperature conditions in the Pacific Ocean. Past research methods were able to identify climate models which performed well using the SVD methodology. This current project seeks to analyze the well-performing climate models and identify future El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean and the resultant precipitation and temperature impacts in the lower CRB. This analysis will provide an objective, ensemble based outlook for potential climate change impacts under El Niño events.

The results of the study can potentially assist lower CRB water management agencies in characterizing the range of future El Niño impacts, under climate change conditions. It is expected that this information could be beneficial in understanding the range of potential El Niño impacts and their effect on drought in the southwestern US.