Microzonation of Seismic Hazards and Estimation of Human Fatality for Scenario Earthquakes in Chianan Area, Taiwan

Abstract:

In this study, we assess seismic hazards in the 57 administration districts of Chianan area, Taiwan in the form of ShakeMaps as well as to estimate potential human fatalities from scenario earthquakes on the three Type I active faults in this area. As a result, it is noted that two regions with high MMI intensity greater than IX in the map of maximum ground motion. One is in the Chiayi area around Minsyong, Dalin and Meishan due to presence of the Meishan fault and large site amplification factors which can reach as high as 2.38 and 2.09 for PGA and PGV, respectively, in Minsyong. The other is in the Tainan area around Jiali, Madou, Siaying, Syuejia, Jiangjyun and Yanshuei due to a disastrous earthquake occurred near the border between Jiali and Madou with a magnitude of M_w 6.83 in 1862 and large site amplification factors which can reach as high as 2.89 and 2.97 for PGA and PGV, respectively, in Madou. In addition, the probabilities in 10, 30, and 50-year periods with seismic intensity exceeding MMII VIII in above areas are greater than 45%, 80％ and 95%, respectively. Moreover, from the distribution of probabilities, high values of greater than 95% over a 10 year period with seismic intensity corresponding to CWBI V and MMI VI are found in central and northern Chiayi and northern Tainan. At last, from estimation of human fatalities for scenario earthquakes on three active faults in Chianan area, it is noted that the numbers of fatalities increase rapidly for people above age 45. Compared to the 1946 Hsinhua earthquake, the number of fatality estimated from the scenario earthquake on the Hsinhua active fault is significantly high. However, the higher number of fatality in this case is reasonable after considering the probably reasons. Hence, we urge local and the central governments to pay special attention on seismic hazard mitigation in this highly urbanized area with large number of old buildings.