How might Climate Change Influence Surface Ozone in the United States?

Abstract:

Climate change may result in changes in cyclone frequency, stagnation frequency, as well as changes in temperature. Here we use the current observational record of ozone to identify the possible future role that climate change may play in influencing the surface ozone in the United States. In particular we examined how changes in the duration and frequency of intervals between cyclones, the length of stagnation events, and high temperature episodes (maximum temperature greater than 90^th percentile level) impacts the concentration and frequency distribution of ozone in different regions of the U.S. (the Northeast U.S., the Mid-Atlantic U.S., the Southeast U.S. and the Western U.S.). Our analysis shows that ozone builds up with the length of stagnation events over all regions of the U.S., but the length of time between cyclones is only associated with a buildup of high ozone over the Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic U.S. Ozone does not build up with the length of high temperature events over any region of the U.S. The correlation between high temperature and high ozone is the largest over the Northeastern U.S.