Assessing the Effects of Burned Areas on the Northern and Southern African Seasonal Climates: a Regional Modeling Study

Abstract:

The occurrence of wildfires, whether natural or anthropogenic, is an important disturbance of the terrestrial ecosystems as it plays an essential role in shaping global and regional vegetation. This study presents an investigation of the impact of burned areas on the surface energy balance and precipitation in northern and southern Africa as simulated by a state-of-the-art regional modeling system. Mean burned area fraction derived from MODIS date-of-burning product was implemented in a set of WRF/SSiB2 simulations. Vegetation cover and LAI were degraded based on mean burned area fraction and survival rate for each vegetation land cover type. Additionally, ground darkening associated with ash and charcoal deposition was imposed by temporarily lowering the ground albedo after burning.

Wildfire-induced vegetation and ground degradation increased the surface albedo by exposing the brighter bare ground of the region, which in turn caused a decrease in surface net radiation and evapotranspiration. Overall, post-fire land condition resulted in a decrease in precipitation over sub-Saharan Africa, associated with the weakening of the West African monsoon progression through the region. A decrease in atmospheric moisture flux convergence was observed in the burned areas, which played a dominant role in reducing precipitation.

The areas with the largest precipitation impact were those covered by savannas and rainforests, where annual precipitation decreased by 3.8% and 3.3%, respectively. The resulting precipitation decrease and vegetation deterioration caused a drop in gross primary productivity in the region, which was strongest in late winter and early spring.

This study suggests that the cooling and drying of atmosphere induced by the burned areas led to strengthening of subsidence during pre-onset and weakening of upward motion during onset and mature stages of the monsoon leading to a waning of convective instability and precipitation. Vertical air movement over the area showed a strengthening of downward motion in winter and spring, and weakening of upward movement during the rainy months. Results from on-going similar simulations over southern Africa will also be presented.