Thermal State of the Greenland Ice Sheet Interior: Thermo-mechanical Modeling and Sensitivity Analyses

Abstract:

Temperature and velocity conditions in the Greenland ice sheet interior, particularly at the bed, remain fairly uncertain, with the exception of sparse borehole measurements and radar inferences. As surface melt progresses inland, these basal conditions may play an important role in future ice sheet dynamics. Using a two-dimensional flow line thermo-mechanically coupled model, we generate steady state velocity and temperature fields for 75 flow lines in the Greenland ice sheet interior, whose accuracy is assessed using robust surface velocity field measurements at stations measured by the Program for Arctic Regional Climate Assessment (PARCA) around the approximate 2,000 m elevation contour of the ice sheet. It is generally useful to perform forward modeling exercises and associated sensitivity analyses as a prelude to detailed inverse modeling, as a means to reveal relations between various uncertain parameters and the observations. We explore the influence of geothermal flux, enhancement factor for Wisconsin ice, and bed topography on temperature and velocity fields in the Greenland interior. A notable finding is a negative feedback between increasing geothermal flux and ice surface velocity in regions with temperate bed. We present simulated temperature and velocity profiles from the main divide to the PARCA stakes, as well as maps of inferred regions of temperate bed and temperate ice thickness. The suggested extent of temperate bed from our simulations is consistent with all available borehole and radar observations in the Greenland interior, and reproduces general features evident from other modeling studies. The velocity and temperature conditions produced in this work for widespread regions of the interior of the Greenland ice sheet may be used to inform and constrain models of future ice sheet response, particularly involving subglacial hydrology and basal refreezing in the interior.