Resiliency of the Chesapeake Bay to Pollution Levels Following Storms and Based on Land-Use

Abstract:

As pollution levels, transformations in land use, and ecological loss continue to increase in the Chesapeake Bay, questions arise as to whether this estuary, the largest in North America, will experience a change in the duration and levels of storm-related sediment and nutrient spikes. We use a combination of satellite data and previously-collected field measurements to study this question. We compare same-day and same-pixel NASA MODIS satellite data to in situ observations of sediment and nutrient concentrations over 20 years, and found that for at least 6 tributaries, the r² value for a linear regression between the satellite reflectance and fieldwork measures of nitrogen, phosphorus, or suspended sediment concentrations exceeded 0.7, while for at least 12 tributaries, the r² value exceeded 0.5. We took advantage of this relationship to estimate sediment and nutrient concentrations in the Chesapeake following major storm events, even in the absence of continuous in situ data. We studied sediment/nutrient levels daily following the storm, for every date on which a cloud-free MODIS image was available, for a month. The storms included 2003’s Hurricane Isabel, 2011’s Hurricane Irene, and 2012’s Superstorm Sandy. The tributaries we focused on were the York and Piankatank Rivers of southern Virginia (heavily forested), the Potomac River (heavily urban), and the Nanticoke River of the Eastern Shore (heavily farmed). Results show that in the Potomac River, which over the last 15 years has experience a signifiant increase in urbanization, sediments and nutrients persist for longer periods and at higher levels compared to less urbanized rivers.