A new observation-based fitting method assuming an elliptical CME frontal shape and a variable speed

Abstract:

In this study, we present a new method for forecasting arrival times and speeds of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at any location in the inner heliosphere. This new approach assumes a highly adjustable geometrical shape of the CME front with a variable CME width and a variable curvature of the frontal part, i.e. the assumed geometry is elliptical. An elliptic conversion (ElCon) method is applied to observations from STEREO’s heliospheric imagers to convert the angular observations into a unit of radial distance from the Sun. This distance profile of the CME apex is then fitted using the drag-based model (DBM) to comprise the deceleration or acceleration CMEs experience during propagation. The outcome of both methods is then utilized as input for the Ellipse Evolution (ElEvo) model, forecasting the shock arrival times and speeds of CMEs at any position in interplanetary space. We introduce the combination of these three methods as the new ElEvoHI method. To demonstrate the applicability of ElEvoHI we present the forecast of 20 CMEs and compare it to the results from other forecasting utilities. Such a forecasting method is going to be useful when STEREO Ahead is again observing the space between the Sun and Earth, or when an L4/L5 space weather mission is in operation.