A shallow landslide analysis method consisting of contour line based method and slope stability model with critical slip surface

Abstract:

To mitigate sediment related disaster triggered by rainfall event, it is necessary to predict a landslide occurrence and subsequent debris flow behavior. Many landslide analysis method have been developed and proposed by numerous researchers for several decades. Among them, distributed slope stability models simulating temporal and spatial instability of local slopes are more essential for early warning or evacuation in area of lower part of hill-slopes. In the present study, a distributed, physically based landslide analysis method consisting of contour line-based method that subdivide a watershed area into stream tubes, and a slope stability analysis in which critical slip surface is searched to identify location and shape of the most instable slip surface in each stream tube, is developed. A target watershed area is divided into stream tubes using GIS technique, grand water flow for each stream tubes during a rainfall event is analyzed by a kinematic wave model, and slope stability for each stream tube is calculated by a simplified Janbu method searching for a critical slip surface using a dynamic programming method. Comparing to previous methods that assume infinite slope for slope stability analysis, the proposed method has advantage simulating landslides more accurately in spatially and temporally, and estimating amount of collapsed slope mass, that can be delivered to a debris flow simulation model as a input data. We applied this method to a small watershed in the Izu Oshima, Tokyo, Japan, where shallow and wide landslides triggered by heavy rainfall and subsequent debris flows attacked Oshima Town, in 2013. Figure shows the temporal and spatial change of simulated grand water level and landslides distribution. The simulated landslides are correspond to the uppermost part of actual landslide area, and the timing of the occurrence of landslides agree well with the actual landslides.