Energy Sector Adaptation in Response to Water Scarcity

Abstract:

Global energy systems models have largely ignored the impacts of water scarcity on the energy sector and the related implications for climate change mitigation. However, significant water is required in the production of energy, including for thermoelectric power plant cooling, hydropower generation, irrigation for bioenergy, and the extraction and refining of liquid fuels. With a changing climate and expectations of increasing competition for water from the agricultural and municipal sectors, it is unclear whether sufficient water will be available where needed to support water-intensive energy technologies in the future. Thus, it is important that water use and water constraints are incorporated into energy systems models to better understand energy sector adaptation to water scarcity. The global energy systems model, MESSAGE, has recently been updated to quantify the water consumption and withdrawal requirements of the energy sector and now includes several cooling technologies for addressing water scarcity. This study introduces water constraints into the model to examine whether and how the energy sector can adapt to water scarcity over the next century. In addition, the implications for climate mitigation are evaluated under a scenario in which warming is limited to 2˚C over the pre-industrial level. Given the difficulty of introducing meaningful water constraints into global models, we use a simplistic approach and evaluate a series of scenarios in which the water available to the energy sector is systematically reduced. This approach allows for the evaluation of energy sector adaptations under various levels of water scarcity and can provide insight into how water scarcity, whether from climate change or competing demands, may impact the energy sector in different world regions. This study will provide insight into the following questions:

• How does the energy sector adapt to water scarcity in different regions?
• What are the costs associated with adaptation to water scarcity?
• How do adaptations to constraints on water withdrawal and consumption differ?
• Is climate mitigation limited under water scarcity (esp. with low deployment of wind/ solar)?
• How important are dry cooling and seawater cooling for addressing water scarcity and climate mitigation?