Uncertainty of Coupling Metrics Between Soil Moisture and Heat Fluxes

Abstract:

We have calculated a suite of land surface variability and land-atmosphere coupling metrics for the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble to assess the spatial and seasonal variability of land-atmosphere feedbacks in the model, and how they change in past and future climate scenarios. We use the ensemble data to quantify the uncertainty in the calculation of these coupling metrics, which have historically been estimated from long single simulations or ensembles of short (1-year or shorter) hindcasts. Comparison to metrics calculated from in situ observations at a variety of Fluxnet sites will inform model development.

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