Detection of earthquake swarms in subduction zones around Japan

Abstract:

Earthquake swarms in subduction zones are likely to be related with slow slip events (SSEs) and locking on the plate interface. In the Boso-Oki region in central Japan, swarms repeatedly occur accompanying SSEs (e.g, Hirose et al., 2012). It is pointed out that ruptures of great earthquakes tend to terminate in regions with recurring swarm activity because of reduced and heterogeneous locking there (Holtkamp and Brudzinsiki, 2014). Given these observations, we may be able to infer aseismic slips and spatial variations in locking on the plate interface by investigating swarm activity in subduction zones.

It is known that swarms do not follow Omori’s law and have much higher seismicity rates than predicted by the ETAS model (e.g., Llenos et al., 2009). Here, we devised a statistical method to detect unexpectedly frequent earthquakes using the space-time ETAS model (Zhuang et al., 2002). We applied this method to subduction zones around Japan (Tohoku, Ibaraki-Boso-oki, Hokkaido, Izu, Tonankai, Nankai, and Kyushu) and detected swarms in JMA catalog (M ≥ 3) from 2001 to 2010.

We detected recurring swarm activities as expected in the Boso-Oki region and also in the Ibaraki-Oki region (see Figures), where intensive foreshock activity was found by Maeda and Hirose (2011). In Tohoku, regions with intensive foreshock activity also appear to roughly correspond to regions with recurring swarm activity. Given that both foreshocks and swarms are triggered by SSEs (e.g., Bouchon et al., 2013), these results suggest that the regions with foreshock activity and swarm activity such as the Ibaraki-Oki region are characterized by extensive occurrences of SSEs just like the Boso-Oki region. Besides Ibaraki-Oki and Boso-Oki, we detected many swarms in Tohoku, Hokkaido, Izu, and Kyushu. On the other hand, swarms are rare in the rupture areas of the 1944 Tonankai and 1946 Nankai earthquakes. These variations in swarm activity may reflect variations in SSE activity among subduction zones.

Figures show hypocenters of swarms (left) and ratio of the number of swarm events to all events near each point (< 30km) in Ibaraki-Boso-oki (right). In the right figure, red and black colors mean regions with intensive swarm activity.