MCS precipitation and downburst intensity response to increased aerosol concentrations

Abstract:

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are important contributors to rainfall in the High Plains of the United States as well as producers of severe weather such as hail, tornados and straight-line wind events known as derechos. Past studies have shown that changes in aerosol concentrations serving as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) alter the MCS hydrometeor characteristics which in turn modify precipitation yield, downdraft velocity, cold-pool strength, storm propagation and the potential for severe weather to occur. In this study, the sensitivity of MCS precipitation characteristics and convective downburst velocities associated with a derecho to changes in CCN concentrations were examined by simulating a case study using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). The case study of the 8 May 2009 “Super-Derecho” MCS was chosen since it produced a swath of widespread wind damage in association with an embedded large-scale bow echo, over a broad region from the High Plains of western Kansas to the foothills of the Appalachians. The sensitivity of the storm to changes in CCN concentrations was examined by conducting a set of three simulations which differed in the initial aerosol concentration based on output from the 3D chemical transport model, GEOS-Chem. Results from this study indicate that while increasing CCN concentrations led to an increase in precipitation rates, the changes to the derecho strength were not linear. A moderate increase in aerosol concentration reduced the derecho strength, while the simulation with the highest aerosol concentrations increased the derecho intensity. These changes are attributed to the impact of enhanced CCN concentration on the production of convective downbursts. An analysis of aerosol loading impacts on these MCS features will be presented.