Challenges to Applying a Metamodel for Groundwater Flow Beyond Underlying Numerical Model Boundaries

Abstract:

Metamodels of environmental behavior offer opportunities for decision support, adaptive management, and increased stakeholder engagement through participatory modeling and model exploration. Metamodels are derived from calibrated, computationally demanding, numerical models. They may potentially be applied to non-modeled areas to provide screening or preliminary analysis tools for areas that do not yet have the benefit of more comprehensive study. In this decision-support mode, they may be fulfilling a role often accomplished by application of analytical solutions. The major challenge to transferring a metamodel to a non-modeled area is how to quantify the spatial data in the new area of interest in such a way that it is consistent with the data used to derive the metamodel. Tests based on transferring a metamodel derived from a numerical groundwater-flow model of the Lake Michigan Basin to other glacial settings across the northern U.S. show that the spatial scale of the numerical model must be appropriately scaled to adequately represent different settings. Careful GIS analysis of the numerical model, metamodel, and new area of interest is required for successful transfer of results.