Estimating soil carbon change and biofuel life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions with economic, ecosystem and life-cycle models

Abstract:

Land-use change (LUC) resulting from biofuel feedstock production can alter soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks of lands producing those crops and the crops they displace, possibly resulting in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. LUC GHG emissions included in biofuel life cycle analysis (LCA) have at times been estimated to be so great that biofuels did not offer a greenhouse gas reduction compared to conventional fossil fuels. To improve the accuracy of emissions estimates, SOC changes must be considered at a finer spatial resolution and take into account climate, soil, land use and management factors. This study reports on the incorporation of global LUC as predicted by a computable general equilibrium model (i.e., GTAP) and spatially-explicit modeled SOC estimates (using surrogate CENTURY) for various biofuel feedstock scenarios into a widely-used LCA model (i.e., GREET). Resulting estimates suggest: SOC changes associated with domestic corn production might contribute 2-6% or offset as much as 5% of total corn ethanol life-cycle GHG emissions. On the other hand, domestic LUC GHG emissions for switchgrass ethanol have the potential offset up to 60% of GHG emissions in the fuel’s life cycle. Further, large SOC sequestration is predicted for Miscanthus feedstock production, enabling Miscanthus-based ethanol systems to offset all life-cycle GHG emissions and create a net carbon sink. LUC GHG emissions for ethanol derived from corn stover are small compared to other sources. Total life-cycle GHG emissions (g CO₂eq MJ^-1, 100cm soil) were estimated to be 59–66 for corn ethanol, 14 for stover ethanol, 18-26 for switchgrass ethanol, and -7 – -0.6 for Miscanthus ethanol.