Constraining the Methane Budget Variations after the Pinatubo Eruption using a Combined Forward and Inverse Modeling Approach

Abstract:

The eruption of Pinatubo in 1991 caused global scale changes in climate and radiation. Large perturbations in the methane growth rate were observed after the eruption, caused by variations in either methane sources or methane sinks. Natural methane emissions from wetlands are influenced by changes in temperature and precipitation, having a significant contribution to methane variability. The main removal of methane from the atmosphere is the reaction with the hydroxyl radical (OH). OH concentrations are in turn sensitive to temperature, humidity and the amount of UV radiation.

In Bândă et al. (2015), we quantified the variability in methane sources and sinks in the 5 years following the eruption, using the 3D chemistry and transport model TM5. We derived an OH inter-annual variability of 1.6% during this period. A 4.5% increase in OH levels from 1992 to 1993, caused by enhanced stratospheric ozone depletion, a recovery of stratospheric aerosols and decreased NMVOC emissions, was found to contribute to the observed drop in methane growth rate. However, using bottom-up inventories of methane emissions, the exact timing and magnitude of the observed methane growth rate variations could not be matched by our simulations.

The variability in natural wetland emissions and in biomass burning emissions is quite uncertain in this period. Emission reductions in the Former Soviet Union were also proposed as a reason for the observed decrease in methane growth rate. Based on the OH variability from our previous chemistry forward model simulations, we infer methane emissions after the Pinatubo eruption using a linearized inverse modeling setup. We can therefore quantify the variability in the methane emissions needed to match the methane variations observed in weekly air samples collected in NOAA's Cooperative Global Air Sampling Network and to identify the emission categories that contributed to these variations.

Reference: Bândă, N., Krol, M., van Weele, M., van Noije, T., Le Sager, P., and Röckmann, T.: Can we explain the observed methane variability after the Mount Pinatubo eruption?, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 15, 19111-19160, doi:10.5194/acpd-15-19111-2015, 2015.