Using ISSM to Simulate the LIA to Present Ice Margin Change at Upernavik Glacier, Greenland

Abstract:

The possibility for rapid melting of the Greenland ice sheet ranks among the most serious societal climate threats. This project puts the rate of contemporary climate change-driven Greenland ice mass change in a temporal context, by simulating the Greenland ice sheet margin throughout the Holocene and comparing the results with past ice margin positions (e.g. Andresen et al., 2014; Bjørk et al., 2012) and records of glacier activity based on fjord sediment strata (Andresen et al. 2012).

Here we show first steps to achieve this goal and model the evolution of the Upernavik Isstrøm, a set of marine-terminating glaciers in Northwest Greenland, during the 20^thcentury, using the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) (Larour et. al 2012). The simulation runs from 1900, shortly after the Little Ice Age (LIA), to year 2013, initialized using trimline data marking the former extent of the ice sheet and forced by a surface mass balance reconstruction after Box (2013). We address uncertainties in ice front positions and thickness by comparing our simulation output with present ice margin positions in the area. Finally, we investigate the possibility of simulating historic changes at ice sheet margins with this finite element ice sheet model.

• Andresen, C. S., Kjeldsen, K. K., Harden, B., Nørgaard-Pedersen, N. and Kjær, K. H. 2014. Outlet glacier dynamics and bathymetry at Upernavik Isstrøm and Upernavik Isfjord, North-West Greenland. GEUS Bulletin 31
• Andresen, C. S., Straneo, F., Ribergaard, M. H., Bjørk, A. A., Andersen, T.J., Kuijpers, A., Nørgaard-Pedersen, N., Kjær, K. H., Schjøth, F., Weckström, K. and Ahlstrøm, A. P. 2012: Rapid response of Helheim Glacier in Greenland to climate variability over the past century. Nature Geoscience 5
• Bjørk, A. A., Kjær, K. H., Korsgaard, N. J., Khan, A., S., Kjeldsen, K. K., Andresen, C. S., Box, J. E., Larsen, N. K. and Funder, S. 2012. Historical aerial photographs uncover eighty years of ice-climate interaction in southeast Greenland. Nature Geoscience 5
• Box, J. E. 2013. Greenland ice sheet mass balance reconstruction. Part II: Surface mass balance (1840-2010), J. Climate, Vol. 26, No. 18
• Larour, E.; Seroussi, H.; Morlighem, M.; Rignot, E. 2012. Continental scale, high order, high spatial resolution, ice sheet modeling using the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM), Journal of Geophysical Research