Effects of snow persistence on streamflow generation in mountain regions of the western U.S.

Abstract:

In mountain regions, both snowpack trend analyses and modeling studies suggest that streamflow generation is sensitive to loss of snow, yet we still lack understanding of where the most snow-sensitive regions are located. Snow persistence (SP), defined as the fraction of year that an area is snow-covered, is a useful variable for identifying snow-sensitive regions because it is easily observed globally using remote sensing. SP can affect streamflow generation by shifting the timing and magnitude of water input. All other factors being equal, we hypothesize that declining SP decreases the ratio of streamflow to precipitation (runoff ratio), and the magnitude of this effect is greater in arid climates than in humid climates. To evaluate whether streamflow generation declines with decreasing SP, we used the MODSCAG fractional snow cover product and 68 USGS reference catchments across five mountainous regions of the Western U.S. to compute annual and mean annual SP and discharge for water years 2000 to 2011. We used PRISM precipitation to compute the annual and mean annual runoff ratio for each catchment. Results show strong positive relationships between annual SP and annual runoff ratio in the Northern Rockies, Southern Rockies, and Basin and Range, where annual precipitation ranges from 0.25 m at low elevations in the Basin and Range to 2.5 m at high elevations in the Northern Rockies. Mean annual runoff ratios for these regions range from 0.32-0.53, and they also increase with mean annual SP. No relationships between annual SP and runoff ratios are evident in the wetter North Cascades and Sierra Nevada ranges, where annual precipitation ranges from 0.44 m in the low elevation Sierras to 4.8 m in the high elevation Cascades. Mean annual runoff ratios for these regions are 0.53-0.87 and show no clear dependence on SP. These results suggest that streamflow generation in arid regions may be most sensitive to loss of persistent winter snow.