Looking Forward to the GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper: Use of Total Lightning Information within Short-Term Forecasts and Hazardous Weather Warnings

Abstract:

Total lightning data, such as that provided by the GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM), provides a particularly attractive addition to the current, radar-only analyses and subsequent forecasts of severe convective storms. The connection between total lightning rates and severe weather has been well documented, but until recently, the detection and monitoring of total lightning has been primarily utilized only within research activity or for unique events such as space missions. Satellite-based lightning data from the GLM has the potential to provide information for convective storms across large territories, including typically data sparse regions such as offshore and within mountainous terrain. Additionally, lightning data may be able to provide extra lead-time over traditional radar data, highlighting which storms are electrically active and growing quickly as opposed to those that are not.

Since 2010, the Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) has been successfully utilized to provide forecasters with a first-hand look at the latest research concepts and products integrating total lightning data while also educating lightning research scientists on the challenges, needs, and constraints of National Weather Service (NWS) warning forecasters. During the live spring experiments, one to five-minute grids of total lightning density and subsequent lightning-derived algorithms, such as the lightning jump, have been incorporated by NWS forecasters within their real-time warning-decision process for various storm modes over multiple regions of the US. Both formal and informal research protocols were used to collect observations, data, and feedback and included online surveys, live blogging and post-event discussions. In their evaluations, forecasters have noted that total lightning data and algorithms could be an incredibly useful situational awareness tool and may be able to provide additional guidance during a warning decision. Additionally, total lightning data shows promise from a storm safety and aviation forecasting perspective. This presentation will visit the recent history of total lightning use in warning operations as well as current and future plans for implementation, use, and training.