Determination of Tsunami Warning Criteria for Current Velocity

Abstract:

Present Tsunami warning issuance largely depends on an event’s predicted wave height and inundation depth. Specifically, a warning is issued if the on-shore wave height is greater than 1m. This project examines whether any consideration should be given to current velocity. We apply the idea of force balance to determine theoretical minimum velocity thresholds for injuring people and damaging properties as a function of wave height. Results show that even at a water depth of less than 1m, a current velocity of 2 m/s is enough to pose a threat to humans and cause potential damage to cars and houses. Next, we employ a 1-dimensional shallow water model to simulate Tsunamis with various amplitudes and an assumed wavelength of 250km. This allows for the profiling of current velocity and wave height behavior as the Tsunamis reach shore. We compare this data against our theoretical thresholds to see if any real world scenarios would be dangerous to people and properties. We conclude that for such Tsunamis, the present warning criteria are effective at protecting people against larger events with amplitude greater than ~0.3m. However, for events with amplitude less than ~0.2m, it is possible to have waves less than 1m with current velocity high enough to endanger humans. Thus, the inclusion of current velocity data would help the present Tsunami warning criteria become more robust and efficient, especially for smaller Tsunami events.