Inferring global and regional methane sources and sinks using isotopic observations and atmospheric chemical transport models

Abstract:

Measurements of the major isotopologues of atmospheric methane have the potential to improve our understanding of the methane budget at the global and regional scale. Using global and regional chemical transport models, we can predict the atmospheric variations in 13C-CH4 and D-CH4, for given assumptions about source isotope ratios and fractionation due to methane sinks. This information can then be used to test the impact that various measurement techniques, technologies and sampling strategies have on our knowledge of the methane budget. We show that, at the global scale, an extensive and accurate network of isotopic measurements can lead to a reduction in the uncertainties in the major global sources. Furthermore, measurements of the D/H ratio in methane may provide some level of uncertainty reduction in the magnitude of the OH sink. Uncertainties can be reduced with improved precision and accuracy of the atmospheric observations. However, to make the most of an atmospheric methane isotope network, we show that the characterisation of source isotope ratios must also be improved. Finally, we put the theory into practice by deriving sector-specific methane sources at the national scale using 13C-CH4 samples collected as part of the Greenhouse gAs Uk and Global Emissions (GAUGE) project. GAUGE measurements are made from a tall tower site to the east of the UK, a background station on the west coast of Ireland and during intensive aircraft sampling campaigns. We will discuss the challenges and benefits associated with adding isotopic information to a national greenhouse gas sampling network and outline a strategy for improvements in the future.