V31G-01
It's About Time: How Accurate Can Geochronology Become?
Wednesday, 16 December 2015: 08:00
308 (Moscone South)
Mark Harrison, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States, Suzanne Baldwin, Syracuse University, Syracuse, NY, United States, Marc W Caffee, Purdue University, Department of Physics and Astronomy, West Lafayette, IN, United States, George E Gehrels, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States, Blair Schoene, Princeton University, Department of Geosciences, Princeton, NJ, United States, David L Shuster, University of California Berkeley, Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Berkeley, CA, United States and Bradley S Singer, University of Wisconsin Madison, Madison, WI, United States
Abstract:
As isotope ratio precisions have improved to as low as ±1 ppm, geochronologic precision has remained essentially unchanged. This largely reflects the nature of radioactivity whereby the parent decays into a different chemical species thus putting as much emphasis on the determining inter-element ratios as isotopic. Even the best current accuracy grows into errors of >0.6 m.y. during the Paleozoic – a span of time equal to ¼ of the Pleistocene. If we are to understand the nature of Paleozoic species variation and climate change at anything like the Cenozoic, we need a 10x improvement in accuracy. The good news is that there is no physical impediment to realizing this. There are enough Pb* atoms in the outer few μm’s of a Paleozoic zircon grown moments before eruption to permit ±0.01% accuracy in the U-Pb system. What we need are the resources to synthesize the spikes, enhance ionization yields, exploit microscale sampling, and improve knowledge of λ correspondingly. Despite advances in geochronology over the past 40 years (multicollection, multi-isotope spikes, in situ dating), our ability to translate a daughter atom into a detected ion has remained at the level of 1% or so. This means that a ~102 increase in signal can be achieved before we approach a physical limit. Perhaps the most promising approach is use of broad spectrum lasers that can ionize all neutrals. Radical new approaches to providing mass separation of such signals are emerging, including trapped ion cyclotron resonance and multi-turn, sputtered neutral TOF spectrometers capable of mass resolutions in excess of 105. These innovations hold great promise in geochronology but are largely being developed for cosmochemistry. This may make sense at first glance as cosmochemists are classically atom-limited (IDPs, stardust) but can be a misperception as the outer few μm’s of a zircon may represent no more mass than a stardust mote. To reach the fundamental limits of geochronologic signals we need to look past the seeming macroscopic nature of our samples to the truly microscopic domains that hold the key temporal information and pursue transcendental approaches to detecting every daughter atom. The central role that geochronology plays in all aspects of historical geology potentially makes the vast majority of Earth scientists our partners in this endeavor.
