Regime Shifts in Shallow Lakes: Responses of Cyanobacterial Blooms to Watershed Agricultural Phosphorus Loading Over the Last ~100 Years.

Abstract:

Rapid changes in ecosystem states have occurred naturally throughout Earth’s history. However, environmental changes that have taken place since the start of the Anthropocene may be destabilizing ecosystems and increasing the frequency of regime shifts in response to abrupt changes in external drivers or local intrinsic dynamics. To evaluate the relative influence of these forcers and improve our understanding of the impact of future change, we examined the effects of historical catchment phosphorus loading associated with agricultural land use on lake ecosystems, and whether this caused a shift from a stable, clear-water, regime to a turbid, cyanobacteria-dominated, state. The sedimentary pigments, diatom, and zooplankton (Cladocera) records from a currently clear-water shallow lake (Roxton Pond) and a turbid-water shallow lake (Petit lac Saint-François; PSF) were examined to determine if a cyanobacteria associated pigment (i.e. echinenone) showed an abrupt non-linear response to continued historical phosphorus load index (determined by phosphorus budget) over the last ~100 years. While PSF lake is presently in the turbid-water state, pigment and diatom analyses indicated that both lakes were once in the clear-water state, and that non-linear increases in catchment phosphorus balance resulted in an abrupt transition to cyanobacteria dominated states in each record. These results show that phosphorus loading has resulted in state shifts in shallow lake ecosystems that has been recorded across multiple paleolimnological indicators preserved in the sedimentary record.