Predicting the Interplanetary Magnetic Field using Approaches Based on Data Mining and Physical Models
Monday, 14 December 2015: 17:15
2011 (Moscone West)
An accurate prediction of the interplanetary magnetic field, and, in particular, its z-component (Bz) is a crucial capability for any space weather forecasting system, and yet, thus far, it has remained largely elusive (a point exemplified by the fact that no prediction center currently provides a forecast for Bz). In this presentation, we discuss the various physical processes that can produce non-zero values of Bz and summarize a selection of promising approaches that may ultimately lead to reliable forecasts of Bz. We describe the first steps we have taken to develop a framework for assessing these techniques, and show preliminary results of their efficacy.