The impact of land use on carbon and climate in the preindustrial Holocene: What have we learned and what are the priorities for future research?

Abstract:

Did humans affect global climate over the before the Industrial Era? While this question is hotly debated, the co-evolution of humans and the natural environment over the last 11,700 years had an undisputed role in influencing the development and present state of terrestrial ecosystems. Yet we still have a very incomplete picture of human-environment interactions over the Holocene. In order to address this lack of understanding, both bottom-up and top-down approaches have been used to reconstruct past human impact on the global carbon cycle and climate. Top-down approaches rely on the analysis of the concentrations and isotopic signature of trace gases trapped in polar ice to identify human contributions to atmospheric composition. Bottom-up approaches combine historical and archaeological data to reconstruct land use, and using these reconstructions drive earth system models that simulate carbon cycling and climate. Recently a number of studies, both top-down and bottom-up, have shed new light on the role of land use influencing the carbon cycle and climate over the preindustrial Holocene.

Ice core studies generally suggested that late Holocene CO2 was driven by natural fluctuations in climate and ocean circulation. The evidence from bottom-up studies is more nuanced. Most scenarios of Holocene anthropogenic land cover change (ALCC) tend to agree in the net magnitude of deforestation at AD 1850. But ALCC scenarios vary widely in the timing of deforestation over the course of the preindustrial Holocene. These differences lead to multiple plausible explanations to the atmospheric composition record, including scenarios that allow for a substantial amount of anthropogenic deforestation in preindustrial time. Uncertainty in our understanding of preindustrial ALCC also leads to large differences in the estimated importance of land use on climate earlier in the Holocene. For example, modelling experiments performed for Europe representing conditions at the peak of the Roman Empire show potentially large impacts of land use on regional climate. The wide variety of results gained so far from ALCC and climate modelling experiments shows that the question of “how much did humans influence the state of the Earth System before the Industrial Revolution?” is far from being resolved.