Modeling Urban Energy Savings Scenarios using Earth System Microclimate and Urban Morphology

Abstract:

In anticipation of emerging global urbanization, better understanding and quantification of climate effects on energy use are needed, requiring coordinated research of microclimate impacts on and from "human systems." To this end, we analyze and quantify the relationships among climatic conditions, urban morphology, population, land cover, and energy use so that these relationships can be used to inform energy-efficient urban development and planning. The focus of this research is on the analysis of measured and modeled energy efficiency of various building types in selected urban areas and temporal variations in energy use for different morphologies under different microclimatic conditions; implications for different morphologies of future climate and urban growth scenarios; and potential energy projections and savings by morphology for selected climatically distinct US cities. This work considers population projections to inform morphological design by incorporating two new datasets in which these projections have been made for years 2030 and 2050 at 30 arc-second resolution, in order to determine potential siting and design of new urban development. The overarching objective is the integration of different approaches across three research areas: earth system modeling; impacts, adaptation and vulnerability; and urban planning in order to address three major gaps in the existing capability in these areas: i) neighborhood resolution modeling and simulation of urban micrometeorological processes and their effect on and from regional climate; ii) projections for future energy use under urbanization and climate change scenarios identifying best strategies for urban morphological development and energy savings; iii) analysis and visualization tools to help planners optimally use these projections.