Progressive failure during the 1596 Keicho earthquakes on the Median Tectonic Line active fault zone, southwest Japan

Abstract:

Rupture patterns of a long fault system are controlled by spatial heterogeneity of fault strength and stress associated with geometrical characteristics and stress perturbation history. Mechanical process for sequential ruptures and multiple simultaneous ruptures, one of the characteristics of a long fault such as the North Anatolian fault, governs the size and frequency of large earthquakes. Here we introduce one of the cases in southwest Japan and explore what controls rupture initiation, sequential ruptures and fault branching on a long fault system.

The Median Tectonic Line active fault zone　(hereinafter MTL) is the longest and most active fault in Japan. Based on historical accounts, a series of M ≥ 7 earthquakes occurred on at least a 300-km-long portion of the MTL in 1596. On September 1, the first event occurred on the Kawakami fault segment, in Central Shikoku, and the subsequent events occurred further west. Then on September 5, another rupture initiated from the Central to East Shikoku and then propagated toward the Rokko-Awaji fault zone to Kobe, a northern branch of the MTL, instead of the eastern main extent of the MTL. Another rupture eventually extended to near Kyoto. To reproduce this progressive failure, we applied two numerical models: one is a coulomb stress transfer; the other is a slip-tendency analysis under the tectonic stress. We found that Coulomb stress imparted from historical ruptures have triggered the subsequent ruptures nearby. However, stress transfer does not explain beginning of the sequence and rupture directivities. Instead, calculated slip-tendency values show highly variable along the MTL: high and low seismic potential in West and East Shikoku. The initiation point of the 1596 progressive failure locates near the boundary in the slip-tendency values. Furthermore, the slip-tendency on the Rokko-Awaji fault zone is far higher than that of the MTL in Wakayama, which may explain the rupture directivity toward Kobe-Kyoto.