Recurring Cold Winters over the Gulf Stream and Implications for Northern Hemisphere Ocean Circulation

Abstract:

As polar amplification of climate warming continues, the potential for increased blocking patterns in the Northern Hemisphere jet stream in conjunction with Arctic climate change exists. During such blocking events the Gulf Stream may be exposed to repeated Cold Air Outbreak (CAO) events, especially during winter. Hypothesizing, based upon basic physical and thermodynamic properties of seawater, one would expect increased CAO events to lead alteration of key characteristics of the Gulf Stream. As the Gulf Stream is a well-known participant in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), and the Gulf Stream feeds the North Atlantic Current into the Arctic Ocean, interesting consequences to alterations of this local system into the large-scale general climate circulation are expected. This study uses CESM’s POP to examine 30 years of CAO intensive winters alongside 30 years of repeated winter warm events to quantify potential subsequent changes in the AMOC and North Atlantic Arctic Ocean inflow.