Towards Actionable Waterborne and Vector-borne Disease Forecasts

Abstract:

Numerous studies have shown that remote sensing (RS) and Earth System Models (ESM) can make important contributions to the analysis, monitoring and prediction of waterborne and vector-borne illnesses. Unsurprisingly, however, the great majority of these studies have been proof-of-concept investigations, and vanishingly few have been translated into operational and utilized disease early warning systems. To some extent this is simply an example of the general challenge of translating research findings into decision-relevant operations. Disease early warning, however, entails specific challenges that distinguish it from many other fields of environmental monitoring and prediction. Some of these challenges stem from predictability and data constraints, while others relate to the difficulty of communicating predictions and the particularly high price of false alarms. This presentation will review progress on the translation of analysis to decision making, identify avenues for enhancing forecast utility, and propose priorities for future RS and ESM investments in disease monitoring and prediction.