Thin Ice -- Bipolar Super Interglacials and our Possible Future

Abstract:

Evidence of exceptionally warm Arctic interglacials from Lake El’gygytgyn NE Russia, combined with the periodic collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (ANDRILL) suggests the need to reassess climate sensitivity and cryospheric dynamics on many timescales. It may be easier to melt significant portions of large sheets and drive large ecosystem changes in the high latitudes than we thought! Elevated global temperatures of only a few degrees (or less) combined with polar amplification seems to have repeatedly caused large changes in the cryosphere and global sea level, still under investigation given the present knowledge and complexity of glacio-isostatic adjustments. But increasing evidence of a forested Arctic and smaller polar ice sheets in the Pliocene when CO₂ was around 400 ppm (like today) and during several more recent super interglacials (under Milankovitch forcing) most likely presages a warming future, partially hidden in recent years by the lagged response of the oceans, atmosphere, and cryosphere to anthropogenic influences. The future will depend on the ability of societies to recognize and respond to the consequences of significant environmental change. The challenge to the science community is to communicate this data-driven reality effectively and without politics.