A Synoptic Air Mass Approach to Defining Southwest U.S. Summer Duration and Change

Abstract:

As the past decade was the warmest in the 110–year active record, and future Southwest warming is expected to be most intense in the summer season, it is important to have an updated atmospheric definition of what constitutes a Southwest summer. This is particularly true given the intensity of current drought conditions and that summers may be changing. Using weather-type data from the Spatial Synoptic Classification, this research aims to synoptically define the summer season in the Southwest since 1950. The Southwest is spatially described here by sub-region and 28 air mass stations within are chosen for air mass analysis. Daily air mass frequencies are examined to determine the dominant and less prevalent types annually and seasonally, from May to September. Then, frequencies in the middle of summer are compared to those in the seasonal fringe months to explore the possibility of a synoptic shift in the timing of the region’s summer season. Finally, to further scrutinize how regional air mass frequencies have changed with time, the data are subdivided and evaluated for the ‘Early record’ (years prior to 1975) and ‘Modern record’ (post 1975). Frequency departures are tested for practical and statistical significance to characterize the strength of summer season variability. Results indicate that Dry Moderate air masses are the most common annually and in summer. Moist and transitional air masses tend to less frequent throughout the Southwest; however, frequencies vary greatly by sub-region. Wet and dry conditions are observed in accordance with the monsoon in some sub-regions, but not throughout the region. Significant changes in sub-regional air mass tendencies are identified that show the Early record experienced cooler air mass conditions (fewer tropical types and more moderate and cool types) than the Modern record. From a long-term synoptic air mass perspective, typical Southwest summers likely last from May to August. However, in the Modern record May frequencies appear less like the rest of summer while September frequencies more closely model the middle of summer frequency record. This indicates that Southwest summers may be synoptically shifting into September.