Numerical Models of Pore Pressure and Stress Changes along Basement Faults due to Wastewater Injection: Applications to Potentially Induced Seismicity in Southern Kansas

Abstract:

As hydrocarbon extraction techniques that generate large volumes of wastewater have come into widespread use in the central United States, increased volumes have been injected into deep disposal wells, with a corresponding dramatic increase in seismicity rates. South-central Kansas is of particular scientific interest because fluid injection rates have recently increased due to renewed gas and oil production from the Mississippi Lime Play, and the local seismicity is being monitored with a seismometer network deployed by the USGS. In addition, since only a small percentage of injection wells seem to induce seismicity, it is important to characterize contributing factors.

We have developed groundwater flow models using MODFLOW-USG to (1) assess hydrogeologic conditions under which seismicity may be triggered, for cases in which wastewater is injected into sedimentary strata overlying fractured crystalline basement rock and to (2) explore the possible relationship between wastewater injection and the November 2014 M 4.8 Milan, Kansas earthquake. The USG version of MODFLOW allows us to use unstructured meshes, which vastly reduces computation time while allowing dense meshing near injection wells and faults. Our single-well test model has been benchmarked to published models (Zhang et al., 2013) and will be used to evaluate sensitivity pore pressures and stresses to model parameters. Our south Kansas model represents high-rate injection wells, as well as oil and gas wells producing from the Arbuckle and overlying Mississippian formations in a 40-km square region. Based on modeled pore pressure and stress changes along the target fault, we will identify conditions that would be consistent with inducing an earthquake at the Milan hypocenter. Parameters to be varied include hydraulic properties of sedimentary rock units, crystalline basement and the fault zone, as well as the (poorly resolved) Milan earthquake hypocenter depth.